Introduction
Most financial advice is written by and for people who already have their yachts, lobbyists, and tax shelters. It tells you to “stay the course” and “diversify” as if those words mean anything when the system itself is breaking down.
This isn’t one of those papers.
This is for the normal man — the guy trying to keep his family safe, his money from evaporating, and his life steady while the world burns through the gears of history.
You don’t have to believe this model will definitely come true. But you can see things are unstable. And if there’s even a chance the Redwin Tursor model is right, it costs you almost nothing to prepare reasonably.
Timeline Warning: This isn’t 10-year planning. Inflection points arrive by late 2026. Comfortable preparation time is running out.
Part I — What You Should Do (Action Items by Priority)
1. Emergency Prep (Next 90 Days)
Kill your debt NOW. In chaos, the over-leveraged die first.
Liquidity buffer. Six to twelve months of cash/T-bills. When systems lock up, cash is king.
Dual currency setup. Open a euro account (even $5k). Near the Canadian border? Add CAD. Insurance, not paranoia.
Document security. Passports, IDs, birth/marriage certs in a fireproof safe. When institutions stress, paperwork is survival.
Food & power buffer. A few weeks of shelf-stable food and a backup generator. Not doomsday—just resilience.
2. Wealth Positioning (Next 6 Months)
Defense sector exposure (25–30%). Europe + Ukraine = permanent frontier economy. Rheinmetall, Saab, Leonardo, Lockheed, RTX.
Repair economy (15–20%). Fluor, Jacobs, infrastructure ETFs. The world moves from “build new” to “fix constantly.”
EW & Cyber (10–15%). Drones, jammers, hardened comms. This is the next growth lane.
Commodities (15–20%). Copper, rare earths, LNG, food. Supply friction = higher prices.
Parallel finance (5–10%). BTC/ETH as escape hatch. Gold as old-school hedge.
3. Geographic Positioning (Ongoing)
Location math. Blue coasts = strong economies, more unstable politics. Red rural = subsidy addicts, fiscal death spiral. Safer bets: major metros with ports + finance hubs.
Connecticut warning. High risk of backstab due to Wall Street ties.
Community. Neighbors, tradespeople, doctors. Survival is social capital.
Skills. Pick one barter-ready hard skill: medical, mechanical, preservation, electronics, logistics.
4. Civil Conflict Hedging (2026 Prep)
Plan B mobility. Passport + residency options abroad (EU, Canada, Japan). Paperwork now = leverage later.
Local intel. Track your governors, mayors, police chiefs. Know who bends to Trump and who resists.
Arms sector watch. If U.S. fractures, blue states will need weapons they can’t buy legally. Ukraine = sole likely supplier. Big risk, big profit.
Part II — Why This Model Matters (Even If It’s Wrong)
1. The Trump Ratchet
Trump escalates compulsively. He cannot compromise, ingratiate, or stabilize. Every challenge = escalation. Every backdown = humiliation → even bigger escalation later. This is why alliances corrode mechanically under him.
2. GOP Faction Math
Trumpists: 45% (base, culture, compulsion)
Pentagon/Defense: 20% (wants NATO customers)
Hawks: 15% (marginalized)
Tech bros: 10% (anti-EU regulation, lobbying)
Liberal internationalists: 10% (ghost faction)
Nightmare: Faction 1 + Faction 4 align → 55% dominance. Pentagon and hawks toast. NATO becomes transactional; EU pivots faster toward autonomy. Already happening with U.S. threats to sanction EU officials over the DSA.
3. Europe’s Die-Roll Dynamic
Every Trump tariff or sanction = 5–10% chance EU hawks (Atlanticists, autonomists) say “fuck it” and accelerate independence. After enough rolls, probability of rupture compounds. First real break in 80 years.
4. Ukraine = Garrison State
Survives as Europe’s Israel.
Absorbs massive defense aid.
Becomes arms exporter.
If U.S. civil rupture hits, only realistic weapons pipeline to blue states.
5. Taiwan = Economic Strangulation
China normalizes “quarantine-lite” pressure: inspections, cyber, shipping choke. Europe hedges, U.S. overstretches, deterrence erodes. Big plays = insurance, cyber defense, alternative routes.
6. Dollar = Death by a Thousand Cuts
15–20% of sanction-sensitive trade already shifting to EUR/CNY rails.
Dollar stays dominant but slips toward ~60%.
Sanctions bite less, compliance costs rise, alternative blocs form.
7. America’s Internal Arithmetic
Blue states = 65–70% of tax revenue, 50–55% of spending.
Red states = net recipients, subsidy addicts.
If union fractures → blue viable, red collapses. First time since 1861 secession math “works.”
8. Military Can’t “Crush Revolt”
Blue states house finance + ports that fund bases.
Officers tied to local economies/families.
Orders to destroy California/New York economies = mutiny risk.
Bardic Bottom Line
This isn’t prophecy, it’s incentives. Incentives are the engine.
Trump’s compulsions → fracture conveyor belt.
Europe’s coherence → autonomy.
Dollar erosion → multipolar money.
Blue vs red fiscal math → civil rupture plausible.
If you prepare as if this model is right: you’re antifragile — less debt, more skills, diversified wealth, stronger networks.
If it’s wrong: you’ve still improved your life.
Either way: fuck Wall Street, take care of yourself.
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